Presidential race expected to be tight in NC

The next president of the United States will be decided today, and North Carolinians could play a key role.

After a campaign season where both parties focused on get-out-the-vote efforts, the race in the state hinges on voter turnout.

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is leading North Carolina by 3 percentage points, according to Real Clear Politics, an organization that aggregates polling data.

But Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling, a left-leaning Raleigh polling firm, said the race is still too close to call in the state.

The firm has President Barack Obama and Romney in a near-tie.

Obama won North Carolina by about 14,000 votes in 2008, and Jensen said if Obama takes the state again, it will be even closer.

“The key region in the state is the Triangle,” he said. “Obama, in 2008, lost every region in the state other than the Triangle, but he won the Triangle by such a large margin that he won the state. (This year), he not only needs to win, but he needs to have a large turnout to make up for what we expect will be losses in the other areas.”

Tracy Reams, director of the Orange County Board of Elections, said the county has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

But she said the county saw a decrease in early voting turnout from 2008, from 51,961 ballots cast early to 50,243 this year.

There has been a slight uptick in early voting across the state compared to 2008, when 2.6 million votes were cast before election day. This year, 2.7 million have been cast so far.

According to Public Policy Polling, Obama led by 9 percentage points in the state’s two-week early voting period. But Romney is ahead by 16 points among those who plan to vote today.

Michael Cobb, political science professor at N.C. State University, said while Democrats are more likely to vote early, they are also more fickle in election day turnout.

“Obama won on early voting in 2008 and lost on Election Day (in the state), but he had enough to win,” he said. “My guess is that he’s got a good lead, but I don’t know if it’s enough.”

Romney is leading among independents by 15 points, according to Public Policy Polling.

“In 2008, we found Obama winning independent voters, so this is a major shift,” Jensen said.

“Romney is really right around where he needs to be with independents in order to win.”

Obama’s campaign has successfully targeted certain demographics likely to lean Democratic, Cobb said.

N.C. Hispanic voter registration increased since 2008 by 65.9 percent, according to State Board of Elections data.

Kathy Smith, Wake Forest University political science professor, said Hispanics typically agree with Republicans on social issues, but immigration policy has cemented the Hispanic vote for Democrats.

According to most polling data, Hispanics favor Obama by a single-digit margin.

“The slight … preference for Romney over Obama in N.C. makes any united block a very important factor in the presidential election — but only if they show up and vote,” Smith said in an email.

Contact the desk editor at state@dailytarheel.com.