A primary dilemma: 2016 elections in North Carolina

Basketball might not be the only madness in North Carolina this March­, as the N.C. General Assembly will vote this week on a bill to move both of the state’s primary elections to March 15.

The bill, discussed on Wednesday by the N.C. Senate Rules Committee and likely to be passed today, would join efforts in July to move the presidential primary earlier in the year.

While the state claims having one primary date could save money, many question its alternate implications.

Paul Shumaker, president of Capitol Communications Inc., a North Carolina political consulting firm, said an earlier primary could increase North Carolina’s influence as a winner-take-all state.

“North Carolina will be a very competitive state in the Republican and now maybe the Democratic primary,” he said. “They can get 15 percent, 20 percent of the vote and win the whole state.”

But Eric Heberlig, a professor of political science at UNC-Charlotte, said as states continue to move up their primary dates, the attention on North Carolina — even with a March primary — could be diluted.

“If everybody’s doing the same thing and you have many events scheduled the same day, the candidates can’t give much attention to your state since they have to campaign in multiple states simultaneously,” he said.

The time constraints of an early primary, as well as the costs of a longer campaign season, could disadvantage new local candidates, said Anita Earls, executive director of the Southern Coalition for Social Justice.

“I think it favors candidates who are well financed and already have strong name recognition,” she said. “And it makes it harder for new candidates and people trying to get into the process.”

Sen. Floyd McKissick, D-Durham, said the bill benefits incumbents and presidential candidates more than other individuals.

“It’s kind of like the golden rule — he who has the gold, makes the rules. In this case, (Republicans) have the gold,” he said. “And they have the power, and they can make the rules.”

In competition with advertising for presidential races, local candidates might experience the most expensive primaries in state history, Shumaker said.

“Candidates have less time to raise money and are going to have to pay multiple times the normal market rate in the primaries for their advertisement,” he said.

Assuming there are still serious presidential contenders within party primaries, Heberlig said voter turnout might increase. He said voters might feel they have a larger impact on selecting their party candidate, unlike in the state’s current May primaries.

In North Carolina, registered independents can vote in primary elections for either party, but Heberlig said many don’t.

He said increased media attention and competition for the candidacy could motivate more independents to vote in the primaries.

While the presidential elections are likely to draw a greater voter turnout, he said the composition of voters would look different than it has in the past.

“It’s going to be somewhat less dominated by the die-hard party activists,” he said. “You get higher turnout when more people are more interested and think that they have a chance of making a difference.”

McKissick said under the bill, filing periods for candidates would be moved from mid-February to mid-December.

This shorter filing period could also impact the quality of the candidates, Earls said.

“People have less time to decide whether to run, so that impacts the ability to recruit and field strong candidates,” she said.

Other countries determine primary logistics through nonpartisan entities, she said.

“It’s another frustrating indication of what’s wrong when the structure of your political system is determined by partisan interests instead of by neutral, nonpartisan interests.”

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