But it is questionable as to how long the good economic times will last. Although the stock market reached its highest levels ever during Clinton's presidency, it has recently displayed a downward trend serious enough to prompt the Federal Reserve Board to decrease interest rates last week in response to a possible downturn in the overall economy.
John Aldrich, political science professor at Duke University, said some of Clinton's tangible contributions to the economy were his support for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). His rejection of the tradition of Roosevelt's New Dealism through welfare reform changed the direction of Democratic ideals.
Rosero said Clinton was willing to take bold and unprecedented measures to accomplish his policies. "On trade, despite not working with liberal Democrats and labor unions, he went ahead with NAFTA."
Uniting the Center
Clinton's search for public approval and his moderate tendencies were displayed in his support of policies not usually associated with the Democratic agenda such as welfare reform, free trade and opening trade with China and Sudan.
"If you're a Democrat and looking at the past eight years, it's hard to see them as a success for the traditional Democrat ideas," said Robert George, professor of jurisprudence at Princeton University. "Clinton made Nader possible. But if he hadn't done what he did he would've gone down in flames like (Walter) Mondale and (Michael) Dukakis. He had to get the votes from the center."
Aldrich said Clinton didn't unite the party traditionally by developing party goals. Instead, the party united as the more conservative Democrats switched to the Republican Party and the voice of moderates increased. "He united by being a moderate and being the great fund-raiser."
As party leader, Clinton's success was not limited to fund raising.
"Probably the thing he will be remembered for most was he really was the leader in bringing the Democratic Party back together," Lapinski said.
Lapinski predicted the Democrats would take control of both houses in the 2002 elections.
But George said Clinton was not the catalyst in the renewal of Democratic cooperation. "What united the Democratic Party together has not been Clinton but the fear of Republicans."
This fear was no more real than when Democrats saw their party leader on the verge of removal from office. Here the party stood together, voting almost strictly across party lines against convicting Clinton.
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Despite their efforts to unite, Democrats lost their 40-year majority in Congress in the 1994 elections after Clinton's first two years in office. Since Clinton's inauguration, 481 Democratic elected officials nationwide switched parties. But Aldrich said this was due to the Republican majority in Congress.
"It's not a measure of Clinton but the value of being in the majority party."
A President Under Fire
One thing Americans will associate with Clinton for at least the next few years will be the Monica Lewinsky scandal, his impeachment trial and the scandal's long-term impact on his political efforts. Lapinski said Clinton's many personal problems preoccupied him in office. "He constrained his own policy agenda by creating these situations such as Lewinsky," Lapinski said.
Clinton's impeachment not only affected his focus on public policies but also could have a lasting effect on future trials. After Clinton, Aldrich said, it might be more tempting for politicians to bring up accusations involving personal scandals without concrete evidence because of the impeachment's lack of political upheaval. "The thing that worries me is that because he came out of it so smoothly and smelling like a rose, people will impeach more often and it won't be a big deal," Aldrich said.
But in the long run, Aldrich said, the impeachment and Clinton's personal issues will not be the major focus of his presidency. "It's going to take a long time, but in time we'll think less often of his personal scandals," he said. "I think he will be considered a good president with personal weaknesses."
George said that during the Clinton presidency, Americans were led to believe the country can be safely run by a morally suspect man who can keep things in order and maintain economic progress. "We treated Clinton as a CEO -- as long as he (made) an economic profit, the public didn't care."
George said this attitude could be detrimental in the future. "People are taught a dangerous lesson that a bad man can be a good president," George said. "We shouldn't believe that because our luck isn't always going to hold."
George said if it were not for the permanent campaign -- a new idea installed by Clinton -- the outcome of the trial might have been different. The idea involves political analysts advising the president on the public's likely reaction to decisions through continued polling.
"He wouldn't have survived impeachment if it hadn't been for the permanent campaign," he said. "His legacy will include the idea of a permanent campaign with a high-tech propaganda office."
George said he expects President-elect George W. Bush to have a form of permanent campaign following the success of Clinton's, demonstrated by his high approval ratings.
A Legacy in Progress
Political pundits said Clinton has his own ideas of what he would like the history books to record about his presidency.
Rosero said Clinton took actions to protect the environment, such as extending a ban on oil drilling and protecting 58 million acres of forest from logging.
But Aldrich said Clinton only recently made a conscious effort to protect the environment, citing the recent large tracts of land set apart in Washington state. "He's working real hard to be remembered as an environmentalist, though he waited to the end of his term to do it."
As Clinton's term winds down, Aldrich said he is defying the tradition of doing little policy-making as a lame duck. "In time we'll realize that he was the most effective president in the end of his term."
But Lapinski said Clinton will be disappointed in his goal to resolve the political conflict in the Middle East, still going strong after various delays in the peacemaking process. "What he wanted to leave as part of his legacy was peace in the Middle East," he said.
No presidency is without its failures, and Lapinski said some of Clinton's struggles passing policy were a direct result of the Republican Revolution of 1994, when Republicans reclaimed both houses. "Policywise, he wasn't as effective because of the Republican-controlled legislature," he said.
Clinton's plan to provide health care for all citizens was a key issue in his 1992 campaign but fell to fierce Republican opposition in Congress.
"I think health care was a huge Democrat issue he had, and he squandered it," George said.
But Lapinski said history will overlook such failures. "Things that didn't pass, like health care, won't be remembered."
Aldrich also said the prosperous economic times should have lowered the number of people living in poverty.
Aldrich said Clinton enjoys unexplained popularity among blacks but refrained from making any specific policies addressing racial harmony or injustice. "Policywise, he'll be remembered less than he could have," he said.
George said Clinton failed to gain the respect of the military. His draft-dodging and early military policies such as "Don't ask, don't tell," may result in a legacy of demoralization of the military.
He said Clinton's biggest failure was not living up to his campaign promise to hold an ethical office.
Political pundits are not sure how Clinton will be remembered. Aldrich said he will be remembered positively but more time is needed to see the effects of his presidency.
"I think he's going to be above average, but that's going to be in the long run," he said. "He was a good president, but he could have been a great president. It's unfortunate."
The State & National Editor can be reached at stntdesk@unc.edu.
