Quick Start May Cloud Perceptions

They stormed through the Preseason NIT, knocked off a national favorite and topped Stanford in the final to steal hearts and take the crown at the World's Most Famous Arena, Madison Square Garden.

And they even included a couple of highly touted freshmen.

They -- the members of the 1998-99 North Carolina men's basketball team -- were the talk of the collegiate hoops world four years ago this week, getting play in all the national publications and making their way onto everyone's "early surprises" lists.

Sound familiar?

Despite the similarities, it's important to point out the major differences between that team and this year's KinderCare version of the Tar Heels, who have started 5-0 and should climb into the AP's Top 25 this week.

First and foremost was upperclass leadership. Following a disappointing close to the Antawn Jamison-Vince Carter years in 1998, senior forward Ademola Okulaja and junior point guard Ed Cota were primed to show people they could ball, too.

Add in a real center-power forward combination (Brendan Haywood and Kris Lang) and the fact that there wasn't an 8-20 season to run from, and the last Preseason NIT champs from Chapel Hill seemed entirely different from this season's trophy-raisers.

But think about it another way. After getting all that early season publicity, the 1998-99 Tar Heels moved all the way up to No. 3 in the rankings.

They would hover around No. 10 all season, would make the ACC final (a 96-73 loss to Duke) and then would earn a No. 3 seed in the West Regional in the NCAA tournament.

And then they would fizz out when it really mattered.

Weber State's Harold "The Show" Arceneaux made sure of that by blowing up and leading the Wildcats to a 76-74 upset of the Tar Heels in the first round of the Big Dance.

North Carolina didn't live up to expectations, most of which were piled onto the team by tradition, by past success.

But at least some of them came from the early season jolt the Tar Heels gave college basketball when it toppled then-third-ranked Stanford to grab the Preseason NIT title.

These days, the usual expectations weren't there at season's start. Following last season's debacle, not much was anticipated from the team, which is made up of six freshmen, three sophomores and two seniors.

And after a preseason loss to Team Nike, fans actually seemed level-headed and willing to watch the young talent mature during the next year or so.

With that, adjustments to the usual hopes were changed. While some wished for a possible NCAA bid, others simply asked for a solid postseason NIT run.

It'd be good for the future of the team, they said.

But after the young group's coming-out party last week in New York City, that sentiment seems long gone.

The Billy Packers and Dick Vitales of the world are claiming the Tar Heels to be "back." The youngsters, they've said, are ready.

Rashad McCants is the scorer and leader they've lacked. Sean May is as skilled a big man as UNC has had in years. Raymond Felton is the next superstar point guard. Jackie Manuel is a stud defender with newfound offensive prowess.

The praise, it seems, goes on and on.

But while the Tar Heels looked really good last week, isn't it a bit early to be proclaiming this to be the next great North Carolina basketball team?

Even the most diehard of the message board maniacs had tempered their excitement with a wait-and-see attitude.

At least they did until the Kansas game. Or until the Tar Heels got up 20 on Stanford in the first half Friday.

Now, students are coming back from Thanksgiving ready to see UNC whup up on Duke. The NCAA tournament? Why not the Sweet 16?

Excitement, and its stifling companion known as expectation, will dominate the hoops conversations from the back seats of Econ 10 classes to the bar stools of 23 Steps.

But what happens if these Tar Heels don't reach their new expectations?

Can North Carolina fans deal with a 1998-99 ending? That is, can they deal with a first-round defeat? To Weber State?

Or worse yet, what if this team hits a rough patch in its ACC schedule and finishes barely above .500?

Will an NIT bid suffice after fans have seen the team dominate early in the season?

After the preseason loss to Team Nike, most of them would've taken an NCAA bid in a heartbeat.

Now, visions of greatness are dancing through their heads, and it seems as if looking toward next season is as out-of-style as Dean Smith's Four Corners offense.

But despite Tar Heel fanatics' cautiousness before the season started, can they be happy with a 1999-type finish?

Back then, few were.

Ian Gordon can be reached at

igordon@email.unc.edu.