Game and Time: North Carolina at Duke. Kickoff is at noon.
Site: Wallace Wade Stadium.
TV/Radio: Jefferson-Pilot Sports will televise the game, seen locally on WRAL. The Tar Heel Sports Network will provide radio coverage; its flagship station is WCHL-AM, 1360.
2004 Records: North Carolina is 5-5, 4-3 in the ACC. Duke is 2-8, 1-6 in the ACC.
Series: North Carolina leads 50--36-4.
Personnel Update: North Carolina - RB Jacque Lewis (broken foot) and OT Chris Woods (sprained ankle) are out. Duke - no injuries reported.
The key matchup: North Carolina RB Chad Scott against the Duke front seven.
The Blue Devils are 10th in the ACC against the run - only UNC is worse. But the Tar Heels hold a clear advantage with their running backs.
Scott ran for 70 yards on 16 carries against Wake Forest last week while splitting time with Lewis and Ronnie McGill.
In the two preceding games, Scott topped the 100-yard mark against both Miami and Virginia Tech - in the first half.
If the Blue Devils want any shot at slowing down the UNC offense, they'll have to figure out a way to slow down Scott because QB Darian Durant has been in a groove the last few weeks.
On the other side, the UNC defense did give up 138 yards to Wake's Chris Barclay. But that was on 30 carries, and a bulk of those were on two fourth-quarter drives when the Tar Heels were playing on tired legs.
Plus, Barclay is one of the top backs in the ACC, and all Duke has to offer is Cedric Dargan, who is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry.
If the Tar Heels play the way they did against Barclay, then they should be able to at least slow down the Duke run game.
Final analysis/prediction: Senior center Jason Brown threw down the gauntlet Tuesday, saying that losing to Duke is like, "you're in elementary school, and you get beat up by a girl."
Well, last year, UNC not only got pounded, it had its lunch money - in this case, the Victory Bell - stolen.
In that game, the Blue Devils raced out to a 23-0 lead, and the Tar Heels couldn't completely recover.
But this year, the Tar Heels have a clear edge in talent - maybe the first time they have been able to claim that since the season-opener against William & Mary.
The Tar Heels also have more incentive, besides revenge, than the Blue Devils for winning this game.
With a victory, UNC would finish 6-5 and all but guarantee itself a bowl bid for the first time since 2001.
But Duke would love nothing more than to spoil its archrival's postseason aspirations.
The Blue Devils already have hurt one ACC team's hopes for bowl eligibility when it shocked Clemson in the closing seconds last weekend.
UNC can ill-afford to overlook Duke the way the Tigers did, but if the Tar Heels play anything like they have the last three weeks, they should handle the Blue Devils.
With more talent and more to play for, look for the Tar Heels to reclaim the Victory Bell and ring it all the way to a postseason bowl.
The Bottom Line: North Carolina 38, Duke 20.
- Compiled by Daniel Blank
