Bowl hopes ride on line in showdown

Game and Time: North Carolina at Wake Forest. Kickoff is at noon.

Site: Groves Stadium.

TV/Radio: Jefferson-Pilot Sports will televise the game, seen locally on WRAL. The Tar Heel Sports Network will provide radio coverage; its flagship station is WCHL-AM, 1360.

2004 Records: North Carolina is 4-5, 3-3 in the ACC. Wake Forest is 4-4, 1-4 in the ACC.

Series: North Carolina leads 66-32-2.

Personnel Update: North Carolina - DE Hilee Taylor (leg injury) is questionable. LB Tommy Richardson (bruised shoulder), DE Melik Brown (elbow injury) and DE Khalif Mitchell (ankle injury) are expected to play. Wake Forest - G Brodie Overstreet (eye injury) is out. WR Willie Idlette (possible stress fracture), WR Kenneth Moore (foot sprain) and LB Brad White (shoulder contusion) are questionable.

The key matchup: Wake Forest running back Chris Barclay against the North Carolina defense.

Barclay, a junior, is arguably the top runner in the conference. He leads all active ACC players in career rushing yards and ranks third in the league this season with an average of 89 yards per game.

The UNC coaching staff will have the unenviable task of formulating a game plan to stop the Demon Deacon running back.

Last week, the Tar Heels surrendered the highest individual rushing total in their history when Virginia Tech's Mike Imoh accumulated 243 yards in the Hokies' 27-24 win.

Imoh's effort reassured UNC's position at the bottom of the conference in rushing defense. The Tar Heels have surrendered an average of 234.9 yards per game on the ground this season, and Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe likely will look to control the flow of the game with a steady dose of Barclay runs.

It will be up to the North Carolina front seven to prevent Barclay from winning the game by himself, as the Tar Heels will look to force the Deacons to rely on their passing attack.

WFU freshman quarterback Ben Mauk is expected to lead that passing attack in his first career start Saturday in place of junior QB Cory Randolph.

While Mauk statistically has been more impressive this seasson, completing 61.5 percent of his passes, the move comes as a bit of a surprise given that Randolph passed for 311 yards and two touchdowns against UNC last season in Kenan Stadium.

Considering Mauk's inexperience, the UNC coaching staff probably would like to put the game in the his hands instead of Barclay's.

Final analysis/prediction: This game is an absolute must win if either team hopes to remain in bowl contention.

North Carolina, which last qualified for a bowl game in 2001, must win to stay alive in the postseason chase - a victory would leave it needing just a win against lowly Duke to become eligible for the postseason.

The Deacons are in a tougher situation even though a loss would not dash their bowl possibilities - trips to No. 18 Miami and Maryland loom in their final two games.

Due to an insatiable demand for tickets to Saturday's game, WFU has added 4,000 temporary seats to Groves Stadium, and the crowd is forecast to be the largest in the venue's history.

While a number of Tar Heel fans likely will make the trek west on Interstate 40, it predominantly will be a crowd itching to see the end of UNC's postseason aspirations - and the rekindling under Coach John Bunting's hot seat.

And with the rested Deacs coming off of a bye week, don't expect that crowd to leave disappointed.

The Bottom Line: Wake Forest 31, North Carolina 27.

- Compiled by Jacob Karabell