When North Carolina first met N.C. State this season, the Wolfpack was on the rise and Tar Heels declining. Now, each team’s trajectory has reversed. How will UNC fare in the rematch at the Smith Center on Tuesday? Here are two big factors.
Momentum
When the two last faced at PNC Arena on Jan. 5, North Carolina’s season wasn’t quite in crisis, but it badly needed a win. In its most recent matchup with a surefire NCAA Tournament team, UNC lost to Kentucky. Immediately after the N.C. State win, the Tar Heels had their worst home loss of the Roy Williams’ era to Louisville. (If you want a refresher from any of those games, follow those links.)
Ahead of the rematch, N.C. State is in a much more precarious place. Including an embarrassing showing against Virginia Tech, Kevin Keatts' squad has lost three of its last four. And the only reason that’s not four straight is because of a Braxton Beverley buzzer beater against Clemson.
On the other hand, UNC has won five straight, including avenging that loss to Louisville by double digits. The N.C. State game marks the start of a critical stretch for the Tar Heels, which includes Virginia and Duke in two of the following four games.
Scoring
So let’s address the elephant in the room. Against Virginia Tech on Saturday, N.C. State scored 24 points — in the whole game. Sorry Kevin Keatts, but if you want to be a winner, you’re going to have to score more than that. The Wolfpack managed only 10 points in the second half, and no player on the roster hit double digits.
Yet, that game is an anomaly for a team that averages 84.4 points per game. That’s still good for 14th best in the country. This team did, after all, put up 82 the first go-round against UNC. So we know Torin Dorn, Markell Johnson and company can put the ball in the hoop. Expect a return to form against North Carolina.
The Tar Heels are the third-highest scoring offense in the country, and they are behind only Gonzaga and the Citadel, who play in the West Coast Conference and the Southern Conference, respectively. That’s not exactly the ACC. And importantly, UNC showed Saturday that it’s capable of scoring against good defenses even when not shooting particularly well. The Tar Heels shot 25 percent from 3-point range against Louisville, and still put up 79 points. That’s a good sign for Roy Williams’ squad.
