Looking ahead to the North Carolina men's basketball team's crucial in-state stretch

After a crushing victory over N.C. State in Chapel Hill earlier this week, the North Carolina men’s basketball team has reached the most important stretch of its 2019 schedule.

Including the home game against the Wolfpack, UNC will have played seven straight games within an hour and a half of the Smith Center through the end of February — five at home, and a pair of games in Durham and Winston-Salem.

Now, that alone won’t make it easy. During that upcoming stretch, the Tar Heels will face two top-5 opponents in No. 2 Duke and No. 3 Virginia. A third top-25 matchup against No. 22 Florida State and a challenge against Syracuse, who knocked off Duke in Cameron Indoor Stadium earlier this season, will round out a really tough slate. 

But playing near home could be a gift for UNC to use to its advantage during the heart of conference play — or not. 

With Duke and Virginia clashing over the weekend, the Tar Heels could theoretically hold sole possession of first place in the ACC by the time they travel to Clemson on March 3. By then, there will only be two more games left in the regular season and the postseason will be drawing near. 

Why this stretch could be good

UNC is 10-1 at home up to this point. The team has the potential to be 14-1 by the end of the month, with huge wins over teams considered serious challengers for the national title. 

At the very best, UNC could finish out February with a 12-game win streak. That would bode well for seeding in both the ACC and NCAA Tournaments, and would be a huge confidence boost for a team that had many concerns after a historic loss to Louisville at home. It would also put to bed much of the doubt in the team’s potential, moving into the most important part of the season.  

The Tar Heels are 8-1 in the conference for the third time under Roy Williams. If they can at least split with Virginia and Duke, then roll through the rest of conference play, things will be looking up for North Carolina. 

Why this stretch could be bad

North Carolina has a big opportunity during this stretch — but what if it doesn’t go well?

While the team will theoretically catch more rest and travel less often than they will later this season, that won’t matter if the Tar Heels don’t win most of the next stretch of games. 

A team can recover from four losses early in the season, like Roy Williams’ team did earlier this season. But North Carolina can’t afford to bank on that happening again. Any more than two losses in the coming weeks will likely knock the team out of contention for the conference title. 

While wins over tough opponents would boost a postseason resume for the Tar Heels, several losses in February would also eliminate momentum, as well as the confidence the team is playing with right now. 

Over the last six wins, UNC is averaging 89 points per game, while cutting down some on its turnovers and guarding the 3-pointer much better. If those trends continue, North Carolina will be sitting pretty for the postseason.

If it can’t, though, the Tar Heels could be scrambling to pull it together ahead of Duke — the final game of the regular season.