Early Plans for Iraqi Invasion Ignore Current Political Climate

I won't hesitate to make my opinion known. Many of you might not agree with it, but such a discourse will make you think. This column, however, isn't going to take itself too seriously, and I plan on being lighthearted at times. That said, let's hit the ground running.

The United States, before President Bush's first term is over, will invade Iraq. An invasion would bring his presidency full circle. After his election, he appointed his father's friends, attempted to wrestle with the same issues his father has and now will try and go to war with his father's enemy. History is cyclical.

The proposed invasion is the worst kept secret on the planet. I suspect the brass at the Pentagon are "leaking" this information to give CNN a good light show to broadcast that first night of the invasion, much like in 1991.

With every week, articles in national newspapers outline war plans approaching the absurd. The latest scheme, invading Iraq from Baghdad outward (what's been called the inside-out plan), wouldn't work in the computer game Warcraft III, much less a full-scale American invasion.

The Bush administration has spent a great deal of time since Sept. 11 outlining that Iraq is included in the Axis of Evil. While I have no doubts that Saddam Hussein is a bad man who does morally disgusting things, I find our government's hypocrisy on this issue amazing.

During the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, the United States supported Saddam Hussein in his fight against Iran. According to an Aug. 18 article on CNN.com, U.S. intelligence officers never discouraged Saddam from using chemical weapons in this war. So why refuse to discourage Saddam when he's using them in a war only to reverse our stance and criticize him later?

Then 1990 rolls around and Saddam, bolstered by his victory in the war with Iran and what he feels is unilateral U.S. support, invades Kuwait, a territory to which Iraq has a historical claim and was only created by the British during their occupation of the region. Suddenly, he becomes Public Enemy No. 1 and has been ever since.

The Bush camp is failing to realize one big fact in the current Iraq situation -- it isn't the '90s anymore.

The Middle East is far more tenuous than it was a decade ago, and our allies in the region are nowhere near as supportive as they were for Bush Senior.

In Desert Storm: The First Iteration, the Saudis and Turks were concerned Iraq would keep searching for territory to expand into, similar to Hitler's desire for "breathing room" in Europe.

Suddenly, the United States steps in with economic interests and the military to save these folks and voila -- politics creates strange bedfellows once again.

Things aren't so simple anymore. The U.S. military has a large commitment to the Afghan reconstruction and the hunt for remaining al-Qaida and Taliban members.

Saudi citizens were the main terrorists behind the Sept. 11 attacks. Iraq has lived under stifling economic sanctions and two no-fly zones since the conclusion of the first war. And the Israelis and Palestinians are just looking for an excuse to start going at each other full-blast.

If anything, the Middle East has become exponentially more complicated than 1991. It is a region where people are just looking for reasons to have at each other.

For whatever reason, Bush Junior seems incredibly hung up on the Iraq issue. I assume he's reacting the way any son would and trying to correct what many people feel was his father's biggest failure by not removing Saddam Hussein from power.

But this very commitment to correcting his father's mistakes could put him right back in his dad's decade-old shoes.

Joseph Rauch is expecting his draft notice by Friday. E-mail him at rauch@email.unc.edu.