Slim Majority Upsets N.C. Power Structure

In the House, Democrats lead Republicans by one vote, with three races still to be decided. The Senate has a four-count Democrat majority, with one race yet to be called.

UNC political science Professor Thad Beyle said the small difference between the majority and minority parties could have potentially negative consequences. He said either party could be adversely affected if a member decides to vote against his party on a particular issue.

"If you get some people who are disgruntled, they can say, 'Why don't we switch?'" he said. "It can lead to some shaky situations."

Ferrel Guillory, director of UNC's Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life, said one of the most substantial changes is the loss of all three co-chairmen of the Senate Appropriations Committee, which could hinder legislative efforts as new leaders take their places.

The committee co-chairmen will not return to the General Assembly because of retirement or losses in the primary or general elections.

"We are going to have new chairs," Guillory said. "It's going to take a while for the legislature to gel."

He said there also is a danger that some legislators could join forces to increase their political clout.

"When you have such a slim margin like that, it gives more power to small groups of legislators."

Guillory said coalitions such as these could diffuse the power of the parties.

Rep. David Redwine, D-New Hanover, who lost a close race that would have given him his 11th term, said coalitions might be the status quo in the General Assembly for the next two years.

"It may not matter whether (coalitions are) a good thing or a bad thing," he said. "It may be the only thing."

But pundits said the stability of the legislature -- especially next year's House -- will depend greatly on the power of the leadership.

Beyle said the next House speaker will have difficulty controlling a closely divided chamber.

The power of the governor, however, will probably increase, Guillory said.

"The one potential area of clarity is the governor's agenda," he said. "It might not be enacted, but out of the diffusion in the legislature, he has the power to add clarity to the situation."

Both Guillory and Beyle said the decreasing margins in the General Assembly -- with Republicans making noticeable gains -- are results of President Bush's nationwide campaign efforts.

"I think the Republicans' success in the election is directly attributable to the fund raising and the personal attention that President Bush invested in the (U.S. Senate candidate Elizabeth Dole) campaign," Guillory said. "He's really been a great source of momentum, particularly for Republicans in the South."

The State & National Editor can be reached at stntdesk@unc.edu.