Trail-weary candidates aim for center

Only 336 hours remain before millions of voters head to the polls to choose the man who will occupy the White House until January 2009.

Fresh off the heels of three debates, President Bush and his Democratic challenger, John Kerry, will use the last two weeks of the campaign attempting to sway undecided voters in key battleground states that could decide the election's outcome.

The pair will crisscross the country to give stump speeches in states where they might gain ground in hopes of winning the necessary 270 electoral votes. But one expert said Bush will face an uphill battle trying to court undecided voters.

Vincent Hutchings, professor of political science at the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor, said the final two weeks before Election Day will work in Kerry's favor, regardless of polls that show Bush leading by a razor-thin margin.

"The bad news for Bush, or any other incumbent, is that there is not much new information he can provide," he said. "Bush is a known quantity."

Hutchings added that history has shown that the majority of undecided voters are women who vote for the challenger. But Kerry shouldn't take them for granted.

"Most of the undecided women will probably vote for Kerry," he said. "But the bad news for Kerry is that there are not as many women who are undecided as usual."

According to a variety of daily tracking polls, the race is a statistical dead heat, with Bush anywhere from 2 points down to 4 points up.

Robert Sahr, professor of political science at Oregon State University, said both candidates have to convince voters that their policies are better.

"Kerry has to continue to show that he is not only presidential material, but as good as Bush on terrorism," he said. "Bush's recent theme switched from showing Kerry as a flip-flopper to a die-hard Massachusetts liberal."

But Sahr said Bush should be cautious with that switch because Kerry cannot be a flip-flopper and a liberal at the same time.

Pundits say there are about 12 states considered winnable by either candidate that will be flooded with new ads.

Among the most important are Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Florida and Ohio, as well as a handful of others. No Republican has ever won the presidency without taking home Ohio's electoral votes.

Hutchings said TV advertising becomes irrelevant since most people already have decided on a candidate. "There is a saturation point," he said. "Both candidates realize the TV game becomes less important."

Jonathan Phelps, a Bush spokesman in North Carolina, said Bush is going to reach out to voters nationwide because he has one of the strongest presidential campaigns ever.

"The bottom line is President Bush is running on his record," he said. "John Kerry is running away from his record."

Both candidates, along with their respective running mates, will be traveling within the swing state of Iowa in their campaigns' final days.

The Kerry-Edwards ticket has a bus tour planned for Edwards to reach out to the Hawkeye state's rural voters.

"Edwards brings credibility to the values that Iowans believe in because of his rural upbringing," said Colin Van Ostern, a Kerry-Edwards spokesman.

At this point in the campaign, both sides will be mobilizing their bases by going door to door to produce high voter turnout.

"The game on the ground is where the election will be decided," Hutchings said. "Both realize that from the 2000 election."

Contact the State & National Editor at stntdesk@unc.edu.