Amendment's future unclear

In the Nov. 2 elections, 11 states approved amendments to their constitutions banning same-sex marriage.

Also on Nov. 2, President Bush - who has stated publicly that he supports an amendment to the federal Constitution - won re-election by more than 3.5 million votes. Now, many across the country are wondering whether that nationwide amendment is far behind.

Thirty-six states have statutes that prohibit the practice - a ban supported by the federal Defense of Marriage Act, passed in 1996.

And aside from the 11 states that amended their constitutions Nov. 2 to include bans, five already have done so. Experts disagree on whether such an amendment could pass during Bush's second term.

Patrick Fagan, an expert in family and cultural issues at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, said it is possible that Congress could pass the amendment within the next four years.

"If (President Bush) gives real strong leadership on this, without a doubt, he can lead the country where the electorate wants him to go."

Fagan said that the issue can be framed as a battle between the American people and public officials and that the conflict is caused by judges whose views diverge from those of the general public.

"It's very clear the overwhelming majority of people want marriage protected as a fundamental institution between men and women," he said. "It's also clear that a lot of judges don't want that."

Jonathan Rauch, a writer in residence at the Brookings Institution and author of the book "Gay Marriage: Why It Is Good for Gays, Good for Straights, and Good for America," said that while he wouldn't rule out the possibility that the amendment will pass, he doesn't think it will get bipartisan support.

"Bush got narrowly re-elected on an agenda that was well to the right of the public in some respects," he said. "I don't think it says much about the American people."

He also said that extending a ban on same-sex marriage to other states would not have a domino effect because most of the states that would favor a ban have already created one.

In North Carolina, legislators do not need to focus on an amendment banning same-sex marriage because laws against the practice already exist, said N.C. Senator-elect Julia Boseman.

In January, Boseman will become North Carolina's first openly gay legislator.

"We already have a law that's been on the books for almost 10 years," she said. "It's illegal."

Boseman said that instead of harping on the issue, she intends to work during her term on the promises she made in her campaign. "We need to concentrate on the real issues that people care about," she said.

"I don't think the Constitution is a place to define social relationships."

But Mark Shields, spokesman for the Human Rights Campaign, said the new amendments are not indicative of a trend.

"The Constitution has only been amended (27) times, and it has never been used to deny a group of people rights that others have taken for granted."

Contact the State & National Editor at stntdesk@unc.edu.