The second coming

A monstrous hurricane, mass evacuations and rising gas prices.

Gulf coast residents have heard this story before, and as Category 5 Hurricane Rita approaches, they're hearing it again.

Rita is now the third strongest hurricane on record, according to the National Hurricane Center. By Wednesday night it was boasting wind speeds up to 165 mph.

At 11 p.m., the National Weather Service reported that the storm was moving west across the Gulf of Mexico at a rate of about 9 mph.

Walt Zaleski, an NWS warning coordination meteorologist, said Rita is continuing on a steady path to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday, somewhere between Corpus Christi and Houston, Texas.

Acknowledging lessons learned from the response to Hurricane Katrina, local and state officials in Texas and Louisiana already have made preparations for Rita's landfall.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry gave an address Wednesday urging coastal residents to evacuate. Officials already have begun busing people out of coastal cities, including Houston and Galveston.

"We hope and pray that Rita dissipates in the Gulf waters, but it's better to be safe than sorry," Perry said.

While Rita poses a sure threat to residents in its path, the storm could have national implications.

The Houston area supports a significant number of oil refineries essential to American fuel and natural gas supplies, said John Tobin, executive director of The Energy Literacy Project.

Any damage to the industry from Rita would come fast on the heels of disruptions caused by Hurricane Katrina, which struck the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi on Aug. 29.

Although some refineries in New Orleans were damaged by Katrina, the oil industry was hurt most by the storm's damage to platforms and pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico, Tobin said.

If Rita is destined for Houston, it could be the refineries that are most at risk. Tobin noted that the U.S. already has a shortage of refining capacity.

A supply crunch could push prices well above $3 per gallon, perhaps as high as $4 or $5, Tobin said.

Katrina's devastating magnitude and Rita's imminent landfall have left some wondering whether this recent succession of historic storms is a new climate trend linked to global warming.

But Zaleski said the uptick in hurricane activity is nothing new. He said there is a consistent cycle of 25 years of low hurricane activity followed by 25 years of more intense and frequent storms. "Since 1995, we've been in that up phase, and we'll probably be in that up phase for the next 10 to 15 years."

 

Contact the State & National Editor at stntdesk@unc.edu.