World health officials point to cooperation to prevent pandemic

The global threat of an avian flu pandemic was spotlighted Tuesday in a speech by the director-general of the World Health Organization.

"There is a storm brewing that will test us all," said Dr. Lee Jong-wook, addressing the Pan American Health Organization's Directing Council.

"Forecasts indicate that the political, social and economic costs of such a pandemic will be huge."

Lee stressed the need for all nations to cooperate, and said it is each country's duty to inform its public about how to respond in the event of a health emergency.

He also encouraged health ministers to support the International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza, an initiative announced by President Bush at the U.N. General Assembly.

"Massive international collaboration is now needed," Lee said.

His remarks came a day after the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization asked wealthy nations to increase contributions to fight the spread of avian flu in Southeast Asia, where it is most prevalent.

"We are overdue for an influenza pandemic," said Dave Weber, a professor of epidemiology at UNC.

And many experts believe avian flu - commonly known as bird flu - could be the cause of the next major outbreak.

The virus circulates primarily within bird populations in Southeast Asia, and humans are at little risk of contracting the current form of avian flu as long as they don't have close contact with infected birds.

The threat of a pandemic lies in the possibility that the virus will undergo a mutation to make it easily transmittable between people. Epidemiologists worry that a human strain of influenza could combine with the more lethal avian strain to produce exactly that kind of mutation.

The Centers for Disease Control, based in Atlanta, Ga., are constantly working to monitor and prepare for potential pandemics, said Abbigail Tumpey, a health communications specialist for the organization.

The CDC is studying cases of the virus in Southeast Asia, working with the World Health Organization and researching possible vaccines to try to prevent a catastrophic outbreak.

"There's always room for improvement," Tumpey said. "It's something that's constantly ongoing."

While researchers are making progress on a vaccine, they still are a long way from mass production, she said.

Even if a viable vaccine can be developed, Weber said mass production will be a significant hurdle.

"It shows there's a lack of leadership in the health department when there aren't enough flu vaccines during periods without pandemics," Weber said, referring to the recent shortages of common flu vaccine.

There have been three major influenza pandemics during the past hundred years. In the U.S., the Asian flu took 70,000 lives during the 1957-58 flu season, and the Hong Kong flu killed 34,000 in 1968-69.

Both are dwarfed by the Spanish flu, which claimed 500,000 lives in the U.S. and up to 50 million worldwide in 1918-19.

If a "medium-level" pandemic took place today, it is estimated that between 89,000 and 207,000 people would die in the U.S., and nearly 35 percent of the population could be affected.

While the human toll of a pandemic would be tremendous, experts also are concerned about the potential economic costs.

"It would depend on the situation," said John Akin, chairman of the economics department at UNC and health economics specialist. "You have to consider the area hit, how contagious it is and other factors."

When asked about an estimation of how much a pandemic would cost the U.S. government, Akin laughed.

"If anyone came up with any numbers, they'd be making them up."

 

Contact the State & National Editor at stntdesk@unc.edu.