Storm models aid response

When a hurricane is on the horizon some people stock up on plywood or extra batteries. Local researchers break out computers.

Rick Luettich is one of them. He's the primary investigator for UNC's Center of Excellence for the Study of Natural Disasters Coastal Infrastructure and Emergency Management" launched last week.

Luettich helped develop a set of models collectively known as ADCIRC.

The models primarily look at storm surge — ocean water pushed toward the shore by winds during a hurricane or other large storm.

Such models are used before a storm to predict what might happen when it hits. Some of Luettich's predictions helped officials create advisories and forecasts for Tropical Storm Hanna this weekend.

Luettich said he and other researchers worked with about 100 different models before Hurricane Gustav made landfall last week.

""I was amazed at what they used the results for"" Luettich said.

Officials in Louisiana checked the models to find spots where the worst flooding and damage were likely to occur.

Then they were able to prioritize post-storm search-and-rescue efforts, make damage estimates and request federal aid in advance for areas that were likely to need it.

In the future, Luettich said, ADCIRC will continue to develop, factoring in more advanced meteorological models and taking into account wave motion, rainfall and water from rivers.

Researchers at the Renaissance Computing Institute, a joint initiative among UNC, Duke University and N.C. State University, also collected data from Hanna this weekend. They also are using ADCIRC models to look at storm surge.

RENCI tracks storms at high resolution, using real-time data.

We're specifically interested in … being able to see very precisely" down to neighborhood level where the risks of storm surge are and the risks of flooding" said Karen Green, RENCI's director for marketing and public relations.

RENCI's computers overlay models of an approaching storm with a Google Earth map of the targeted area. By seeing how their predictions stack up against an actual storm, researchers hope to develop better models that will help predict what might happen in future disasters.

Most of our work right now is to try to integrate different kinds of models and also to have very rich" high-resolution data on existing storms that researchers and emergency managers can then use" Green said.

Luettich is heading up the Department of Homeland Security's $15 million research grant connected with the center. He said he thinks that money is only the beginning of UNC's research in this field.

We will grow the center into something that UNC-Chapel Hill becomes known for.""



Contact the University Editor at udesk@unc.edu.