With two months left before the elections, Sen. Richard Burr’s once solid re-election prospects have diminished as polls continue to indicate a tighter race than expected.
Though considered one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents up for re-election early this year, political pundits predicted a comfortable Burr victory.
As it stands now, Burr’s best chance for keeping the seat lies in riding the nationwide wave of Republican momentum, said Scott Rasmussen, president and CEO of polling think tank Rasmussen Reports.
Most polls give Burr a five to 10 percent advantage — a big lead in a swing state with a history of close races — but also show that neither candidate has much support across party lines.
His small lead in the polls is due largely to anti-Democratic sentiment and his opponent’s lack of money and exposure, said Dean Debnam, president of Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling.
Still, neither Burr nor his Democratic opponent, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, has made much of an imprint on the state’s undecided voters, said Chris Hayes, senior legislative analyst at the polling think tank John W. Pope Civitas Institute.
“Nothing in North Carolina now is a solid seat one way or the other anymore,” Hayes said. “We’re never going to be a Georgia where the Senate race is won by 20 points.”
The gap between Burr and Marshall is representative of races across the country, as voters sour on the Democratic majority in Congress. Many prominent Democrats continue to struggle in their re-election campaigns.
“Everybody wants to focus on the individual candidates, and I think the overall tide is much more important,” Rasmussen said. “If this was a Democratic leaning year like in 2006, Burr would be in serious trouble.”
