To the dismay of the Western world, Russia annexed Crimea last week after a hastily organized referendum held in the shadow of Russian troops.
Vladimir Putin’s moves are a big deal. Hillary Clinton has gone so far as to compare Russia’s actions in Crimea to Germany’s aggression before the outbreak of World War II, as both were ostensibly carried out in defense of ethnic minorities in the target areas. Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has called Putin a “new czar” and called his actions in Crimea a “game-changer” for America’s relations with Russia.
Secretary Albright is right — if left unchallenged, Russia’s actions could change the way international relations develop not only between the U.S. and Russia but in the world at large. There are other regions in Europe, notably Transnistria in Moldova, with Russian minorities that will be appealing targets in the future if Putin concludes that there are no consequences for this aggression .
Even more worryingly, if Putin’s moves stand, China may deduce that there will be few consequences for pursuing their own interests in disputed areas. Chinese aggression in the South and East China Seas, over their disputed border with India, or even towards Taiwan would be catastrophic for stability in Asia.
International norms that have allowed an explosion of prosperity and an unprecedented era of peace in the past two decades are being challenged by states that think in terms of their own hard power and influence. This is a crucial time, and in order to preserve both the international system and our place in it, we need American leaders ready to defend it.
Unfortunately, that is not what we have. The Obama administration has been willing to trumpet its view that Russia is flaunting international norms, but has done next to nothing in order to defend those norms. So far, the only action beyond rhetoric that the U.S. has taken has been to impose sanctions on a handful of Russian businessmen that amount to little more than a “mosquito bite” in the words of one Kremlin analyst. Ironically enough, Obama will be spending this week in Europe at the Nuclear Security Summit, pursuing his dreams of nonproliferation while his inaction on Crimea could drive states who lose confidence in America’s security umbrella to pursue their own nuclear weapons.
Luckily, it is not too late. The Russian economy is already hurting from the mere threat of extended sanctions. Moreover, the U.S., a net exporter of natural gas, should take steps to make its export to Europe easier and thus mitigate Russia’s main source of leverage over Europe.
If Crimea becomes the precedent, the consequences could be disastrous for all of us. More instability and aggression from foreign powers abroad will translate to higher prices and a weakened economy at home. It is great for Obama to condemn Russia for ignoring the international norms in which it puts such faith, but the U.S. must be willing to defend those norms with action if our words are to be respected.
