DOE underestimates UNC's Pell grant graduation rates by nearly 30 percent

In a departure from previous policy, the U.S. Department of Education released long-awaited data on graduation rates for students who receive federal Pell Grants, including UNC’s. But there is an issue: The data might be wrong.

Compared to independent data collected by the Education Trust, an education nonprofit based in Washington, D.C., the department’s numbers are off by an average of 10 percentage points.

At UNC, that gap is nearly 30 percentage points, as the federal government reported only 57 percent of UNC’s Pell Grant recipients graduate in six years versus UNC’s self-reported figure of almost 87 percent in 2008. The federal government’s data was obtained from the National Student Loan Database System, a transactional database that has info for all students who receive federal aid.

“The database is set up to track students who have to pay back loans, so students who only receive a Pell Grant — but not loans — will likely be missed,” said Sarah Butrymowicz, data editor for the Hechinger Report, a nonprofit news organization focused on education.

Higher education activists who sought the data cited concerns that students who receive Pell Grants graduate at lower rates than those who do not.

“People need to know what the outcomes are for students who receive this money,” said Andrew Nichols, director of higher education research and data analytics at The Education Trust.

According to data UNC’s Office of Scholarship and Student Aid has collected, Eric Johnson, assistant director, said he believes UNC Pell recipients are in a relatively good position to succeed.

“Our six-year Pell Grant graduation rate for the 2008 cohort was almost 87 percent, one of the highest in the country,” he said.

The disparity in graduation rate between Pell recipients and non-Pell recipients at UNC is one of the nation’s smallest, around 5 percent, with 91 percent of students who don’t receive Pell Grants graduating in six years in 2008.

Nichols noted systemic barriers Pell Grant recipients face.

“We have a system that perpetuates inequalities. Most Pell Grant recipients are going to schools that don’t serve them well. Non-Pell Grant recipients fare a lot better.”

Nichols said he expects the NSLDS data to improve by 2019, as the Department of Education makes changes to the system and their data collection. He said, however, these problems will persist because so many Pell Grant recipients attend institutions with graduation rates far lower than than UNC’s.

“At some point, the federal government needs to think about holding institutions accountable for their poor outcomes. Ultimately, it’s students getting the short end of the stick.”

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