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The Daily Tar Heel

Rivalry game holds rare postseason implications

TV/Radio: TV coverage will be on ESPNU. Radio coverage will be provided by WCHL 1360 AM and WRDU 106.1.

The Victory Bell is once again on the line as the Duke Blue Devils traveled fifteen minutes to face off against North Carolina in Kenan Stadium.

With these two rivals squaring off, and both with 5-3 records, the game carries significant weight as both teams vie for bowl eligibility.

On top of the ACC Coastal standings, Duke boasts the ACC’s best passing attack, averaging 325 yards a game. Thaddeus Lewis, Duke’s star quarterback, has thrown for 15 touchdowns and only four interceptions.

The senior signal-caller, along with his two favorite receivers, Donovan Varner  and Connor Vernon, have torn apart opposing secondaries, especially zone defensive schemes.

In the past three games for Duke, all wins, Varner and Vernon have averaged a combined 226 yards and one touchdown per game. For North Carolina to stop Duke’s offense, its going to start with containing Lewis and his two favorite targets.

North Carolina’s offensive issues seem to have been fixed in the past few weeks.  Shaun Draughn and the rushing attack is fully charged, and T.J. Yates and the offensive line have been able to drive the ball down the field through the air as well.

Duke’s defense statistically lies in the middle of the conference. Against it, North Carolina’s offense will once again try to run the ball in hopes that it will lead to great play-action opportunities.

North Carolina’s defense is best in the ACC with the league’s third-best pass defense and the best rush defense.

But Duke won’t be to concerned with running the ball.

It’s going to take UNC’s entire defensive unit to slow Duke down. The defensive line must put pressure on the quarterback. The linebackers must blitz when needed and cover when not. The secondary will have to close off the holes in the zone that both Christian Ponder and Tyrod Taylor found.

When UNC faced the former top passing offense in the ACC, Florida State, it took UNC cornerback Charles Brown’s stumble to start breaking down the secondary. UNC had handled FSU’s passing attack well until then, and it doesn’t plan on tripping up again.

Game breakdown and prediction

 

UNC offense v. Duke defense - Edge: UNC

North Carolina’s offense has finally been moving the ball and converting third downs to put points on the board. Duke has some good players on defense but lacks consistency, something the UNC offense has been able to execute recently.

Duke offense v. UNC defense - Edge: Duke

North Carolina’s defenders tend to get exposed by good quarterbacks, and Thaddeus Lewis is a good quarterback. If North Carolina sends a three-man  rush to drop eight in coverage, Lewis is going to have a field day.

Special Teams - Edge: Duke

Duke’s kicker, Will Snyderwine, is 11-12 with a long of 47 yards this season. There may not be many punts in this game, although UNC has slightly better returners. The game may come down to making field goals, and Connor Barth isn’t making 91.7% of his.

Intangibles - Edge: UNC

It’s a rivalry game, and a game Duke hasn’t won since 2003. Still, UNC will be just as eager to keep that streak going as Duke will be to end it. But UNC will have the support of its fans, the luxury of being home.

The Bottom Line — North Carolina 27, Duke 23

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