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New maps could give Republicans 11-3 advantage in N.C. congressional delegation

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The N.C. General Assembly sits in Raleigh.

New maps released by the N.C. General Assembly today would likely give Republicans an advantage in 10 or 11 of the state's 14 congressional seats up for grabs in 2024. The state's current congressional delegation is made up of seven Democrats and seven Republicans after court-imposed maps were used for the 2022 elections.

The new maps also give Republicans an advantage in 32 seats in the N.C. Senate and 71 in the N.C. House — which would not be enough for a supermajority in the N.C. General Assembly.

The map proposed in Senate Bill 757 would likely give Republicans a 10-4 or 11-3 advantage in the state's congressional delegation.

The new maps released today come under loosened redistricting rules after the 5-2 Republican majority on the N.C. Supreme Court said in April that North Carolina state courts can have no oversight over issues of political gerrymandering. Federal courts had already passed the issue of partisan gerrymandering to state courts.

The new maps released today include two options for the congressional districts — with one giving a solid 11-3 advantage to Republicans and the other giving a 10-4 or 11-3 advantage. The map with a possibility of 10-4 proposes one closely contested district in the northeast part of the state in incumbent Democrat Rep. Don Davis' (D-N.C. 1st) district.

Dave's Redistricting, a site that allows users to analyze district data, gave each congressional map option the lowest possible score for proportionality.

The map proposed in Senate Bill 756 would likely give Republicans an 11-3 advantage in the state's congressional delegation.

Several Democrat incumbents are expected to be drawn out of their seats, including Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-N.C. 14th), who has been mulling a run for attorney general.

Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-N.C. 4th) will also potentially be drawn out of a seat if the General Assembly chooses to enact the S.B. 756 map. Foushee currently represents Chapel Hill and Carrboro in the U.S. House and was elected to her first term in Congress in November 2022.

N.C. Rep. Tricia Cotham (R-Mecklenburg), who switched parties in March and handed Republicans in the state legislature a supermajority, was drawn into a competitive but Republican-leaning state House district should she choose to run again. But, Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C. 8th) is running for state attorney general, leaving the congressional seat for Cotham's area open and safely Republican.

State legislature

The maps proposed in Senate Bill 758 could give Republicans a 32-18 advantage in the state Senate.

The new state Senate maps give Republicans an advantage in 32 seats out of 50, more than enough for a supermajority. Republicans currently hold 30 seats in that chamber. The new maps do not endanger N.C. Sen. Graig Meyer's (D-Caswell, Orange, Person) seat, which will stay the same.

In the state House, Republicans have a numerical advantage in 71 seats, the same number the GOP won in 2022 before Cotham's party switch.  

They would need to win 72 to hold a supermajority in both houses.

The map proposed in Senate Bill 898 could give Republicans a 71-49 advantage in the state House.

Both of the representatives for Orange County – N.C. Rep. Allen Buansi (D-Orange) and N.C. Rep. Reneé Price (D-Caswell, Orange) – were drawn into likely Democratic seats.

@ethanehorton1

@DTHCityState | city@dailytarheel.com

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Ethan E. Horton

Ethan E. Horton is the 2023-24 city & state editor at The Daily Tar Heel. He has previously served as a city & state assistant editor and as the 2023 summer managing editor. Ethan is a senior pursuing a double major in journalism and media and political science, with a minor in history.