For the last week, the GOP presidential candidates have been out in force in Florida — well, unless you are Ron Paul who has been in Maine — trying to win the hearts of the Floridian voters before tonight’s primary.
The Sunshine State’s ‘winner-takes-all’ 50 delegates system has amped up the pressure on the candidates. In this primary, even a close second-place still counts as a loss.
As the third-largest state in the country with a diverse demographic make-up, Florida is the first state that gives a relatively comprehensive vision of what nationwide voting could look like.
Sarah Treul, a UNC Political Science professor, said the expectations for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich are higher than the other candidates.
Currently, Romney is the favorite to win. Since Thursday’s Jacksonville debate, he has held a substantial lead in public support against Gingrich.
A poll released Monday afternoon by Quinnipiac University pitted him 14 points ahead of Gingrich with 43 percent support. Texan Congressman Ron Paul and Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum trailed far behind with 11 percent of likely votes each.
Romney’s significant lead has mainly been attributed to his much-improved debating skills in Jacksonville.
“I absolutely think it was one of Romney’s best performances,” said Greg Steele, chairman of UNC College Republicans.
But Treul said debate performances are not the deciding factor for voters.
“We shouldn’t put too much stock into winning debates though given that there are so many of them,” she said.
Steele said he thinks debates have a huge influence on voters.
“You can definitely credit Gingrich’s South Carolina win to his performance [in the debate] the night before,” he said.
Even if Romney wins Florida’s primary, both Treul and Steele agree that Gingrich is likely to stay in the race.
Austin Gilmore, president of UNC Young Democrats, said Gingrich remains a strong opponent to Romney.
“Gingrich is still pretty formidable because he’s tapping into a lot of the very angry populist sentiment sweeping the country… and it’s really hurting Romney,” he said.
Gilmore said Romney and Gingrich’s shared stance on making English the official language of the U.S. government could hurt them both.
“I think one of the most significant things to come out of that (Jacksonville) debate was both Romney and Gingrich saying that they would not support bilingual ballot boxes,” Gilmore said. “It should be a big issue in the Hispanic community.”
This is especially important in Florida where 23 percent of the population is Hispanic.
Steele does not put much emphasis on the results of the Florida primary as he believes whoever eventually wins the nomination will give Obama a tough time in the general election.
But he said the ideal candidate would be a combination of Paul’s limited government approach, Santorum’s social conservatism, Gingrich’s zeal for overturning Obama’s policies and Romney’s economic background.
Gilmore is unconvinced by this positive spin on the undecided Republican nomination.
“The GOP is scrambling for a candidate and they didn’t find anybody,” he said. “Much like what happened to the Democrats in 2004 with John Kerry.”
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